The Hidden Cost of Optimism: Rethinking Catalyst Economics in Global Hydrogen Techno-Economic Analysis

Hydrogen is central to global decarbonization ambitions, yet its economic feasibility remains clouded by inconsistent modeling practices. Drawing on a curated dataset of 350 techno-economic analyses (TEAs) published between 2009 and 2023, this study reveals a structural pattern of optimism and methodological uniformity in the assessment of hydrogen production costs. Electrolysis dominates literature, representing three-quarters of all studies, while bottom-up and hybrid learning-rate frameworks prevail over empirically validated approaches. Regional analyses show PEM electrolysis costs spanning more than an order of magnitude, from ≈ 2 €/kg in Asia–Pacific to > 60 €/kg in North America, driven largely by divergent assumptions rather than technical differences. Temporal forecasts further converge unrealistically toward 2–4 €/kg by 2050, reflecting the diffusion of shared modeling priors rather than empirical progress. Re-evaluation of representative studies demonstrates that including catalyst cost and lifetime shifts projected hydrogen prices by up to five–folds, overturning many claims of cost parity. These findings highlight the need to align techno-economic modeling with materials science, embedding catalyst realism, transparency, and sustainability as foundations of credible hydrogen economics.