Environmental vulnerability of the municipality of Rio de Janeiro to leptospirosis cases due to extreme hydrological events

We developed a statistical model for analyzing environmental vulnerability on urban infrastructure to the risk of leptospirosis due to the recurrence of intense hydrological events (floods and inundations). The SARIMA technique (Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) was used to build forecasts, observing the seasonality and specific temporal dynamics of the data on city of Rio de Janeiro, where the National Reference Laboratory for Leptospirosis of the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation is located. An incidence matrix was constructed to identify patterns and frequencies of variables associated with leptospirosis. We founded that rainfall intensity and seasonality has a direct impact in leptospirosis cases (each increase of 1 mm in precipitation can raise the number of cases by 0.31%). Intense rainfall contributes to the spread the Leptospira bacteria in areas with poor sanitation infrastructure, insufficient drainage, and inadequate land use. In the face of intense hydrological events due to climate change, an increasing number of disease cases is expected in economically and socially vulnerable areas.