Gender Role Attitudes and Transition to Marriage and Marital Parenthood in Japan

Gender revolution theory suggests fertility rebounds when men increase their private sphere contributions, a concept relevant to low-fertility East Asia, where women’s public sphere gains have not been followed by men’s involvement in household work. While individual-level studies have mainly analyzed the relationship between gender role attitudes and fertility intentions, less is known about how these attitudes are associated with behavioral outcomes at earlier phases of fertility, entry into marriage and marital parenthood. This is crucial in East Asia, given the close linkage between childbearing and marriage and the associated gendered expectations toward marriage. Using nationally representative longitudinal survey data from Japan, 2007–2024, this study examines how three distinct gender role attitudes, toward the separate sphere, mother’s primacy in childcare, and importance of women’s jobs, are associated with the transition to marriage and marital parenthood for women and man. Results show that women with more egalitarian attitudes, specifically disagreement with separate spheres, are less likely to enter marriage. Conversely, men disagreeing with mother’s primacy in childcare are more likely to enter marriage, though this result depends on model specification. Meanwhile, no gender role attitudes are significantly associated with the transition to marital parenthood. These findings suggest that the conflict between gender egalitarianism and the gendered institution of marriage centered around childbearing manifests as selection into marriage, rather than the subsequent entry into parenthood.