Temporal changes in the burden of Edentulism across the BRICS, 1990-2023: a comprehensive analysis for the global burden of disease study 2023

Abstract Objective This study analyzed long-term trends (1990–2023) and drivers of edentulism burden in BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and projected the burden to 2050. Materials and methods Using GBD 2023 data, Joinpoint regression assessed trend turning points. Age-Period-Cohort (APC) modeling and decomposition analysis quantified contributions from population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes. The Bayesian APC (BAPC) model projected future burden. Result Edentulism burden was heterogeneous. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) were high/increased in Brazil and Russia but declined in China, India, and South Africa. Population aging was the primary driver of absolute burden increases in China, Russia, and Brazil; population growth was key in India and South Africa. APC analysis revealed rising risk in younger Chinese cohorts. Projections suggest continued burden increases for Russia, Brazil, and China. Conclusions The absolute edentulism burden is rising in all BRICS nations, driven by demographic transitions. Divergent epidemiological trends and emerging risk in younger Chinese cohorts necessitate dual strategies: strengthening prevention for the young and preparing health systems for surging geriatric/prosthetic dental care demand. Clinical Relevance Although age-standardized risk is declining in some BRICS nations, the absolute number of edentulous individuals is surging, driven by population aging. Clinicians and health systems must prepare for a rising demand for prosthetic/geriatric dental services. The identified risk in younger Chinese cohorts signals an urgent need to intensify primary prevention, focusing on controlling caries and periodontal disease.