Educational Structure and First Marriage Pattern Changes in China: A Gender-Asymmetric Structural Analysis

China’s higher education expansion since 1999 has transformed gender status patterns and challenged traditional marriage norms. This study examines how the changes in educational structure, from both absolute and relative perspectives, account for the first marriage pattern changes. Results show that the postponement of first marriage and the potential trend towards lifelong non-marriage are explained by changes in the educational structure, yet there exists gender asymmetry. Men’s delayed marriages stem primarily from increased never-married proportions within educational levels, especially among those with primary education or less, explained mainly by changing marital propensity. On the contrary, changes in educational structure better explain the postponement of women’s first marriage. The rise of lifelong non-marriage among highly educated women is primarily attributable to their relative numerical disadvantage in the marriage market. The mechanisms of change in China’s marriage patterns show both similarities and distinctions compared to other countries in East Asia. This research provides a structural perspective for understanding China’s evolving marriage patterns and the potential emergence of a singlehood society.