Managing hysteretic recovery in lake systems

Tipping points in lakes are often considered ‘irreversible’ owing to feedback loops resisting recovery and the need to reverse stresses beyond socioeconomically acceptable limits. However, we lack sufficient knowledge to identify situations where lake recovery, though difficult, is possible. Existing approaches are limited when estimating the magnitudes and timescales of real-world hysteresis and the ability of ecosystem management to facilitate recoveries. Using a validated systems model of the Lake Chilika fishery (India), we explore how stress levels and management interventions influence hysteresis. Under high anthropogenic stresses and no restorative management, collapses happen within 29 years – taking a further decade to recover to sustainable fish stocks following ~60,000 fishery livelihood losses (i.e., high hysteresis). Contrastingly, active management simultaneously cuts recovery times by up to a decade and reduce hysteresis magnitudes by ~80%. Overall, well-designed, timely, and extensive management is paramount for faster, reversible recoveries which minimise social-ecological trade-offs in lake systems.