Evolving Mortality Burden of Valvular Heart Disease with Atrial Fibrillation Among U.S. Adults Aged 45 Years and Older: Trends (1999–2023) and Projections to 2035

Background Valvular heart disease (VHD) and atrial fibrillation (AF) frequently coexist, presenting complex clinical challenges despite advances in diagnostics and therapeutics. Together, they contribute substantially to cardiovascular mortality. However, epidemiological patterns vary across demographics and regions Methods Mortality data from 1999–2023 were obtained from the CDC WONDER database. Deaths attributed to VHD (ICD-10: I30-I52) with co-diagnosed AF (ICD-10: I48) among adults ≥ 45 were included. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 1,000,000 population were calculated. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to project mortality trends through 2035. Results From 1999 to 2023, there were 172,511 VHD and Afib-related deaths in adults ≥ 45. AAMRs increased until 2021, followed by a slight decline to 8.86. The overall AAPC for VHD with AF was 4.01%. AAMR increase was consistent across all age groups, highest seen in 65 + individuals. Males had consistently higher AAMRs than females. AAPC for males was 4.44% and for females 3.52%. Non- Hispanic White had the highest AAMR (10.56 in 2021), followed by Hispanics (4.19). Regionally, the West had the highest AAMR (11.27), followed by Mid-West (9.94). Non-metropolitan areas had higher AAMR 8.96 compared to metropolitan areas (AAMR: 7.59). Most VHD related deaths were reported in inpatient settings (n = 396,451) and 12% involved co-diagnosed AF. Conclusion Mortality associated with VHD and AF in the U.S population aged ≥ 45 has shown a concerning increase. Predictive models indicate this trend may persist, highlighting the need for early detection, equitable healthcare access and public health interventions tailored to high-risk populations.