How Will Chinese Exports Respond to Trump’s Tariffs? A Sector-Level Analysis in The Light of The Current US-China Trade War

This study aims to analyze the elasticity of Chinese exports to the United States to tariffs applied by the U.S. on these exports across 23 product categories over the period 1993–2022. The study employs sector-level empirical analysis using bivariate cointegration techniques to estimate the elasticity of Chinese exports with respect to US-imposed tariffs. By applying logarithmic transformations to export values, the model calculates the percentage change in exports triggered by a 1% change in tariffs. Results reveal significant heterogeneity in Chinese export responses to imposed U.S. tariffs. While many product categories exhibited negative responses to tariff, some demonstrated resilience or even positive export elasticity. These outcomes were influenced by factors such as production cost structures, supply chain integration, and alternative market access.