Development strategy of prefabricated construction under government incentive mechanism: A tripartite evolutionary game analysis

Prefabricated construction is a key trend in the future construction industry. Their adoption involves multiple stakeholders, with government incentives playing a pivotal role. Reaching a prompt resolution on how to effectively foster active participation from all parties is significant. This study presents a tripartite evolutionary game model involving the government, developers, and contractors. The influence of government incentive strategies on stakeholder decision behavior is examined, the theoretical findings are substantiated through numerical simulations, and the sensitivity of key parameters to stakeholder behavior is assessed. The findings demonstrate that: (1) Combined with the industry life cycle theory, the market mechanism dominated the initial and mature stages of the prefabricated construction industry, while the government played a leading role in early and mid-development stages. (2) The government can effectively encourage developers and contractors to engage in the development of prefabricated construction by implementing appropriate incentive mechanism. (3) Incentivizing developers is more effective for advancing the prefabricated construction industry's development. (4) Phased policies are crucial: subsidies should dominate in the early stage of development; a combination of subsidies and penalties is most effective in the mid-stage; and as the prefabricated construction industry matures, supervision and punitive measures become essential.