Burdens of Pancreatic cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projection to 2050 in China: Findings from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study

Background Pancreatic cancer in China exhibits high incidence and mortality rates, imposing a significant disease burden. It is essential to clarify the trends in pancreatic cancer from 1990 to 2021 and predict future trends up to 2050, which can provide valuable information for planning effective management and prevention strategies. Objective Utilizing the latest data from GBD 2021, this study assessed and analyzed the distribution and patterns of the pancreatic cancer disease burden across different age groups and genders in China, along with projections for the next 30 years. Results In 2021, the number of incident cases, deaths, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) showed an increasing trend, reaching 118,665.43 (94,622.75–144,663.08), 119,601.86 (95,653.59–145,218.13), and 2,930,317.01 (2,301,048.70-3,575,078.95) person-years, respectively. Over the 30-year period, the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) for incidence, deaths, and DALYs were 3.13 (3.08–3.18), 3.06 (2.79–3.33), and 2.53 (2.31–2.75), respectively. The Age-Standardized Incidence Rate (ASIR), Age-Standardized Death Rate (ASMR), and Age-Standardized DALY Rate were 5.64 (4.52–6.84), 5.72 (4.59–6.91), and 137.23 (108.15-166.74), respectively. However, from 1990 to 2021, the global average age-standardized incidence, death, and DALY rates increased by 2.14 (1.27–3.19), 2.08 (1.22–3.10), and 1.62 (0.87–2.52), respectively. Analysis of risk factors for pancreatic cancer revealed that from 1990 to 2021, high fasting plasma glucose surpassed smoking as the leading risk factor, with high body-mass index ranking third. Gender-specific analysis showed that incidence, mortality, and DALY rates were higher in males than females. Projections indicate an upward trend in the incidence, mortality, and DALYs of pancreatic cancer in China over the next 30 years. Conclusion This study comprehensively compares differences in the disease burden across populations and over time, providing further evidence for the development of pancreatic cancer prevention and control policies and etiological research.