Assessing the Social Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Egypt’s North Coast and Nile Delta Region

River deltas are global hotspots of climate change vulnerability, and Egypt’s Nile Delta is among the most critically threatened. Characterized by low elevation, high population density, and immense socio-economic importance, the region faces a confluence of pressures from sea level rise (SLR), land subsidence, and coastal erosion. While the physical risks are well-documented, a systematic understanding of the potential for social disruption and migration (SDM) remains a critical research and policy gap. This paper addresses this gap through a novel mixed-methods approach, combining geospatial modeling with expert-elicited data to project SDM dynamics under four SLR scenarios (0.5 m, 1.0 m, 1.5 m, and 2.0 m) by 2100. The analysis reveals that by 2100, up to 84 million people in the Delta and North Coast may reside in areas affected by SLR. Under a 2.0 m SLR scenario, an estimated 21.2 million people could become internal migrants, while 15.9 million may pursue external migration—a trend approximately doubling the current national rate. Community responses are highly differentiated by geography and demography; urban populations are more likely to engage in protest and local livelihood diversification, whereas rural populations exhibit higher propensities for internal migration or inaction. A stark gender disparity emerges, with men dominating migration and protest, while women are disproportionately likely to become immobile, highlighting how climate change amplifies pre-existing social inequalities. The findings suggest that financial capacity and trust in governance are the primary determinants of community action. The paper contributes to theories of climate-induced mobility and urban resilience by identifying potential displacement thresholds and the emergence of “trapped populations.” It concludes that Egypt requires an urgent shift from a focus on hard infrastructure towards integrated adaptation strategies. The findings provide critical, quantitative evidence that escalating sea level rise poses a direct threat to Egypt's progress on the 2030 Agenda, particularly undermining SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities) by amplifying gender disparities, SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) by driving unsustainable internal migration, and SDG 13 (Climate Action) by revealing profound deficits in national adaptive capacity.