Projected impacts of climate change on wheat, oats and forage corn yields in Quebec

Climate change continues to impact crop yields and farm revenues worldwide, and Quebec is no exception. However, its future impacts on some crops remain uncertain. This study aims to analyze the impacts of climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, GDD, T30) on the yield of three major crops (wheat, oats and forage corn) as well as the associated farm revenue in six regions of Quebec (Capitale-Nationale, Chaudière-Appalaches, Centre-du-Québec, Montérégie, Montréal and Outaouais) and at the provincial level. Using climate, production and economic from 1991–2018, we trained and estimated some models using regression techniques. These models were then used to project yields and associated revenue (price × yield) up to 2100 under two climate scenarios: moderate and high (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0), those scenarios are a representation of the future development of emission of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, they are based on assumptions regarding driving forces like demographic and socio-economic development. Results reveal a high sensitivity of wheat and forage corn yields to growing degree days and temperature extremes, while oats appear to be less sensitive. Projections show that the SSP3-7.0 scenario results in sharp declines in yield and revenue in some regions for the studied crops, including Montréal and Outaouais. Conversely, Montérégie and Capitale-Nationale regions maintained a more stable production dynamic. These results suggest an urgent need for differentiated regional adaptation policies, integrating climate-resilient varieties, adjustments to the agricultural calendar and a better understanding of the interactions between market, climate and agricultural productivity.