The Network Characteristics and Driving Forces of Return Migration Intentions of China's Floating Population

Against the backdrop of China's shifting population mobility patterns amid regional coordinated development and rural revitalization, this study investigates the network characteristics and driving forces of return migration intentions among the floating population. Using data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey and municipal statistical yearbooks, we construct a directed weighted inter-city network of return migration intentions and employ Social Network Analysis (SNA) and the Eigenvector Spatial Filtering Gravity Model for empirical analysis. The results reveal three key features of high-value return intention flows: cross-regional flows from eastern mega-cities to central-western/northeastern regions, short-distance flows from central core cities to surrounding small- and medium-sized cities, and flows from western industrial/mining cities to the central region. The return intention network is divided into five communities with distinct structures, reflecting the constraints of geographical proximity and urban hierarchy. Driving force analysis shows that macro-regionally, migration distance exerts a significant negative impact (geographical friction effect), while the origin region’s economic development has a positive pull effect. Micro-individually, males (as primary economic providers) exhibit lower return intentions, and education has a marginal positive influence. Behaviorally, business engagement reduces return intentions due to location-specific resource accumulation. This study enriches migration theory from a network perspective and provides empirical support for formulating targeted policies for regional coordinated development and rural revitalization.