From Coupling Coordination to Green Leapfrogging: The Threshold-Driving Mechanism of New-Quality Productivity and Innovation Resource Allocation Efficiency

Against the backdrop of enhancing the effective driving role of new-quality productivity (NQP) and innovation resource allocation efficiency (IRAE) in green economic development, this study constructs a "NQP - IRAE - green economy" framework. Using bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis, coupling coordination degree measurement, and threshold effect models based on panel data of 30 Chinese provinces during 2010-2023, the findings reveal that: (1) There exists a significant coupling coordination relationship between NQP and IRAE; (2) This coupling coordination degree positively drives the green economy through "technology-resource" bidirectional empowerment, with transmission channels of green finance and data factors, and moderating effects of environmental regulation intensity; (3) The driving effect exhibits a dual-threshold feature: it shows "linear accumulation" when the coupling coordination degree is below 0.610, "nonlinear transformation" in the range of 0.610–0.654, and "exponential leapfrogging" when exceeding 0.654. In terms of heterogeneity, the driving effect is strongest in high-high (H-H) clustered regions and eastern China. This study clarifies the nonlinear mechanism through which the synergy between NQP and IRAE drives the green economy’s leapfrogging, providing theoretical support and practical guidance for formulating differentiated green development strategies and breaking the bottleneck of green economic growth.