How Minimum Wage Hikes Affect Food Service Employment: Evidence from California and New York

This study evaluates the short-term effects of recent minimum wage increases on food service employment in California and New York using a difference-in-differences approach. In April 2024, California implemented a $20 per hour minimum wage targeting fast food workers, while New York enacted a modest $0.50 statewide increase in January 2025. Using monthly employment data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and Texas as a control state, we estimate the sectoral employment response to each policy. Results show that California experienced a statistically significant decline of approximately 42,580 food service jobs relative to Texas after the policy took effect. No significant change was observed in New York, likely due to the smaller policy magnitude and limited post-treatment period. These findings suggest that the labor market impact of minimum wage increases depends critically on policy design, implementation scope, and sectoral targeting. JEL Codes: J38, J21, J88