Modeling Sustainable Economic Growth and Volatility Dynamics in Developing Asia: An EGARCH Approach Using Macroeconomic Indicators (2017–2023)

In this paper, the author attempts to examine the sustainability and volatility in the economic growth of Developing Asia over the period 2017–2023 by utilizing time-series econometric modelling techniques with Eviews. The paper uses GARCH and EGARCH structures to estimate the conditional mean and volatility, as well as the asymmetric effects on GDP growth dynamics by incorporating major macroeconomic fundamentals such as inflation and current account that are gathered from the Asian Development Bank and World Bank. A descriptive trend analysis shows a robust rebound in Asian sub-regions after the 2021 pandemic shock, despite continuing volatility, notably in South and Central Asia. The EGARCH model estimates also support the presence of asymmetric volatility negative shocks (for example, high inflation or a wide current account) to uncertain than positive growth shocks. These results point to the structural vulnerabilities and circular dependencies that continue to impede sustainable economic development in the region. Policy implications: It draws attention to the importance of macroeconomic stability institutions, regional cooperation, and strong financial market capacity, thereby promoting long-term sustainable growth. The study provides empirical evidence for volatile-based macro-policy formulation in the emerging Asian economies. JEL Classification: C32 , E31 , E32 , F43, O53