Association Between Novel Lipid and Obesity Indices with New-Onset Stroke: A Long-Term Study Based on the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA)

Background Few studies investigated the association of newly occurring indexes of obesity and dyslipidemia including atherogenic index of plasma (AIP), body roundness index (BRI), waist-to-height ratio (WHTR) with new-onset stroke in the British population among older adults. Methods We utilized data from Wave 6 of the ELSA, with an initial pool of 4017 participants. New incidence of stroke was captured from self-report questionnaires at Waves 7 to 9 (2014–2019). Correlation detection applied multivariate logistic regression. Generalized additive models (GAMs), subgroup analysis and threshold analysis were designed for identifying nonlinear features or modifiers. Results One hundred and five subjects had experienced stroke (M: F = 3:1, aged 75.8 years) (2.6% of total subjects). Greater AIP, BRI, WHTR individually predicted an increase in risk of incidence of stroke [or 3.33 (95% CI 1.68 to 6.62) for AIP; or 1.13 (1.01 to 1.26) for BRI; or 18.03 (95% CI 1.38 to 234.89) for WHTR]. Quartiles were shown in trends between AIP( P -trend = 0.002), BRI ( P -trend = 0.056) and WHTR ( P -trend = 0.056). Stronger than old elderly. Effects were greater in < 65 years and females. The GAM shows evidence of non-linearity for AIP on stroke risk in younger and < 65 years groups. A threshold of -0.18 emerged. Results are robust under sensitivity analysis. Conclusion These newly occurrence parameters AIP, BRI, and WHTR can predict new-onset stroke non-linearly, showed stronger in those from younger elderly and females; they could help population stratify health risks, developing the approach treatment of metabolic and preventive in primary health care clinic settings of individuals.