Pews to Populism: Religiosity as a Predictor of Trump Support Among Latinos

Latino support for Trump surged in the 2024 election. Quality estimates are that he received as much as 46% of the overall Latino vote, a stunning occurrence for a candidate with a history of racist comments towards Latinos (Ghitza et al. 2025). Using data from the ANES, we argue that religiosity explains the movement of Latino voters towards the Republican party. As the United States has secularized, religious and nonreligious identities have become associated with partisan identifications. Religious Americans tend to identify as Republicans and nonreligious Americans as Democrats (Smith et al. 2025). Our findings show this trend holds for Latinos and Trump support. High religiosity predicts Latino support for Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Latinos who attend church often, pray frequently, and have higher belief in God were more likely to support Trump. These findings suggest first, that Latino political behavior is increasingly similar to that of White Americans, and second, that religion not race, may emerge as a key cleavage in the future.