Climate change impacts on agricultural green productivity in China

Climate change significantly impacts agricultural production practices and pollutant emissions. China, one of the world's largest agricultural nations, is particularly sensitive to climate change. Using the relevant data of 2533 counties in China between 2000 to 2020, this study calculates and compares water pollutants-based agricultural green productivity changes when climate factors are and aren’t included into the production function, and assesses the impacts of climate change on agricultural green productivity. Results reveal that agricultural green productivity change including climate factors are generally less than those excluding climate factors, indicating that climate change has an overall negative impact on agricultural green productivity change in China. Compared with agricultural green total factor productivity change(AGTFPC) and agricultural green technology progress change(AGTC), the negative impact of climate change on agricultural green technology efficiency change(AGEC) is generally smaller. Additionally, this paper conducts a regional comparative analysis on climate change affecting agricultural green productivity, and finds that climate change has negative impacts on AGTFPC, AGEC and AGTC in almost all agricultural regions, except for positive impacts on AGEC in Yunnan-guizhou Plateau and Sichuan Basin and surrounding areas, and AGTC in South China. This study is helpful in shaping climate-resilient policies to increase agricultural sustainability.