Modelling forest fire susceptibility in response to changing climatic scenarios in Indian western Himalaya

Identifying the spatial and temporal attributes which are favouring forest fire susceptibility necessary for biological conservation. The adverse effects of climate change on the forest has increased wildfire. The rise in global temperature and alteration of rainfall patterns have produced appropriate conditions for forest fires. A non-parametric ‘Random Forest Algorithm’ for modelling the spatial distribution of forest fires was applied to predict the susceptibility of Indian western Himalayan forest due to fires. The forest fire susceptibility was simulated in the present (years 1970–2000) and future (years 2041–2060 and 2061–2080) environmental gradients. The real-time distribution of the fire susceptibility was evaluated and modelled using forest fire history data with an overall accuracy of more than 0.9. To derive the fire susceptible region in future, we have applied the model statistics of the present time to the future climatic scenario. The magnitude of increase of fires was predicted relatively more along longitudinal and elevational gradient as compared to the latitude. The high sensitive forest fires susceptible area was found as 35376.18 sqkm in the present conditions, while it occupied 61440.03 sqkm, 57181.76 sqkm, 57662.82 sqkm and 56612.11 sqkm respectively in 2041–2060 in the four projected climatic scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways ( i.e. , RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). During 2061–2080, a decline in RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 (56241.95 sqkm and 56668.29 sqkm) and an increase in RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 (61199.50 sqkm and 57510.15 sqkm) were predicted. The results clearly show the fire susceptible area will be higher in the RCP2.6 for the year 2041–2060 and RCP6.0 in 2061–2080. The current study thus provides scientific conclusions that the forest fire susceptibility is climate driven in the western Himalayas.