Voluntary sustainability standards can mitigate deforestation-export trade-offs

Agrifood trade is key for food security and climate change adaptation ^1-3 , but contributes to significant environmental impacts, including deforestation ^4,5 . The governance of sustainability in global food systems is shifting from the public to the private sector ⁶ , with Voluntary Sustainability Standards (VSS) as the most widespread private governance instrument promoting sustainability through trade ^7,8 . However, their effectiveness in reducing deforestation at scale remains poorly understood as studies predominantly focus on farm-level analyses ^9–12 and overlook indirect land use change, spillovers, and broader trade-offs ^12–14 . Here, we provide novel large-scale evidence by combining country-level analyses with innovative commodity-attributed deforestation data for seven major forest-risk commodities, 12 leading VSS, and 125 producing countries (2012 to 2020). We examine the relation between VSS coverage and deforestation, as well as potential trade-offs with export growth in forest-risk commodities ^12,14 , and further assess the role of VSS design ^15,16 . Overall, contrary to farm-level evidence, VSS coverage is not significantly linked with reduced country-wide commodity-driven deforestation, but is associated with mitigating deforestation-export trade-offs. Associations vary across commodities—VSS coverage is linked with reduced deforestation in the palm oil sector but with increased deforestation in the cocoa and coffee sectors—and across VSS, which is explained by differences in design, with stronger enforcement, rather than stricter criteria alone, enhancing effectiveness. Results indicate that VSS can help reconcile export growth with forest protection, pointing to relative rather than absolute decoupling. This study provides evidence that private governance through VSS has the potential to reduce commodity-driven deforestation at scale, contingent on standard design, and that with certification, less forest is lost per dollar or ton exported, signaling progress toward more sustainable agricultural trade. Increasing VSS effectiveness in mitigating deforestation-export growth trade-offs requires prioritizing enforcement, addressing broader land-use dynamics, and stimulating uptake of certified commodities.