Occurrence and intensity: the future of precipitation in Europe and the Mediterranean

Climate change is reshaping precipitation regimes across Europe and the Mediterranean, with distinct regional patterns and implications. Using a high-resolution 15-member Euro-CORDEX ensemble, changes in daily precipitation distributions are analyzed through a diagnostic framework that separates intensity shifts, shape distortions, and occurrence changes. Between the periods of 1950–2020 and +4°C global warming, Northern Europe shows a robust intensification of wet-days precipitation, driven by both stronger events and increased frequency. In contrast, the Mediterranean exhibits a dominant drying signal, primarily due to fewer rainy days—even for heavy precipitation. Transitional zones along the northern Mediterranean reveal “U-shape” regimes, where extremes increase while moderate rain declines. Comparisons with ERA5 confirm anthropogenic signals in the north but highlight uncertainty in the south due to internal variability and model disagreement. The timing of regime emergence varies: in terms of global warming levels (GWL) signals are robust at +1°C in Northern Europe, but delayed until +3–4°C in the Mediterranean. These findings inform risk-based adaptation strategies.