Getting back on track: cause-specific dynamics of life expectancy change during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Argentinian provinces

Argentina’s social and economic development is heterogeneous among its provinces, and health and mortality profiles are unequally distributed across the country. We estimate changes in life expectancy at birth (LE) for the period 2019–2023 for Argentina and its provinces, and the sex and age-specific contribution of COVID-19 and other causes of death in LE changes, using deaths from Vital Statistics and population projections. We build yearly life tables for 2019–2023 and decompose the age- and cause-specific contribution to changes in LE bin the period, separately by sex and province. LE loss in 2020 was around 0.5 years for women and 1 year for men on the country-level, and about 2.5 and 3 years in 2021 respectively (resulting in LE levels comparable to the 2000). Most of the decline in 2021 is attributable to COVID-19 and the highest mortality increase is found in ages 40–79. In 2023, most Argentinian provinces have recovered to 2019 LE levels. Men’s LE has recovered faster than women’s, so they have almost 1 more year of LE than in 2019’s, whereas women only have 0.6 years. We find a variety of province-specific situations, and high heterogeneity in the change of LE across provinces, independently of their levels of development. We extended previous research on LE losses in Argentina, showed the heterogeneity across all Argentinian provinces, and identified age groups and provinces who are still the most vulnerable to mortality shocks. Simultaneously, we account for improvements in mortality by other causes during the period.