Renewable Energy Cost Pass-Through to Electricity Prices: A Panel NARDL Study of China, India, and South Africa

Cheaper renewables do not automatically translate into cheaper power. Drawing on a new 2005–2024 panel for China, India, and South Africa, we estimate a Panel NARDL model with common-factor controls. A % rise in capacity-weighted solar-plus-wind procurement costs lifts average retail tariffs by .35 %, whereas an equal fall trims them by only .12 %—a clear “rockets-and-feathers” asymmetry. India’s 2021 automatic cost-pass-through rules have already halved this gap, while China’s 2025 auction reform has yet to bite. Aligning downward with upward elasticities could lower tariffs byup to 6 % and generate consumer-surplus gains of US$ 22 billion by 2030. The upshot: regulatory design, not technology cost alone, determines who benefits from the renewable-cost revolution.