Regional Disparities and Spillover Effects of Rural Credit Based on Quantile Spatial Models in Brazil

This study examines the impact of agricultural credit on agricultural production in Brazilian municipalities, considering the origins and purposes of financing, using an innovative spatial econometric approach. Using data between 2019 and 2023, the research applies to the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), in its traditional and quantile versions, to analyze direct and indirect effects of credit on the Gross Value of Agricultural Production (GVP), distinguishing between financing and investment lines, and between public and private sources of credit. Spatial analysis using the Moran index and LISA confirms patterns of concentration of credit and production in the South and Central-West regions, accentuating regional inequalities. The results show that rural credit exerts a significant and heterogeneous influence throughout the distribution of agricultural productivity, with positive effects more concentrated in municipalities with higher performance. Additionally, relevant spatial externalities are observed, particularly in investment credit modalities, indicating spillover effects on neighboring municipalities. The article emphasizes the importance of targeted public policies that consider the spatial impact of rural credit, aiming to reduce territorial disparities and promote more equitable and sustainable agricultural practices.