Climate and Non-Climate Related Adaptation Among Smallholder Farmers and Its Implications for Forest Resources in Nyasa District, Tanzania

Smallholder farmers in Nyasa District, Tanzania, face rising vulnerability due to rapid population growth (98%), poverty (90%), climate variability (83%), and soil infertility (79%). This situation leads them to rely on forest resources for their livelihoods, driving forest degradation. The study analyzed 30-year trends in temperature and rainfall, their impacts on crop yields, farmers’ adaptation strategies, and their effects on forest resource management. A mixed-methods approach was used, including household surveys, interviews, focus group discussions, field observations, and satellite land cover analysis. Results showed a statistically insignificant decline in rainfall (p = 0.92). The maximum temperature increased significantly by 0.26°C, while the minimum temperature rose insignificantly by 0.52°C since 1994, which has influenced crop yields. Land cover analysis indicated a 10.52 km ² (33.95%) reduction in forest cover due to agricultural expansion and immigration. Regression analysis found a significant link between adaptation strategies and both crop yields (p = 0.012) and forest resources (p = 0.000). Farmers employed various adaptation strategies, such as migration (59%), farm expansion (41%), use of agrochemical (60%), shifting cultivation (56%), adoption of improved crop varieties (86%), selling charcoal and firewood (68%), and adjusting planting calendars (100%). Some of these practices collectively contributed to forest degradation. Non-climate stressors—including poor farming practices (99%), poverty (99%), weak institutions (99%), and declining soil fertility (82%)—further worsen food insecurity, highlighting the urgent need for integrated adaptation and forest management strategies to ensure sustainable rural livelihoods.