Identifying the CO2 emission gap toward China’s carbon neutrality from the perspective of CO2 concentration
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CO 2 emission volume is used as a mainstream index when considering the climate goals either in modeling practices or in each round of climate negotiation. CO 2 concentration can provide micro-level evidence of CO 2 emission, while it hasn’t been included in national decarbonization pledge. The lack of CO 2 “concentration-emission” coupling framework hinder the incorporation of CO 2 concentration in climate mitigation policy formulation. In this study, we construct a CO 2 “concentration-emission” coupling framework, which allow us to examine China’s carbon neutrality target from the perspective of CO 2 concentration. By using Atmospheric background station data, we find that (1) Compared with scenario that implements current policy (CPC), there are around 103.9 Gt of CO 2 emission gap cumulatively under scenario that achieve carbon neutrality (CNS). (2) By 2060, China's artificial carbon sink capacity is required to reach a magnitude of 2.91 Gt/year, which is higher than results from the previous study. (3) The 450 ppm target will be largely surpassed even under CNS scenario. We highlight the need of tailored policy that combining both CO 2 emission volume and CO 2 emission concentration control in national carbon mitigation toolbox.