The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Global Natural Gas Trade: Mechanisms and Implications from the U.S. Export Perspective

Employing a Difference-in-Differences (DID) model, this study systematically assesses the structural impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global natural gas trade. It reveals distinct regional variations and dynamic evolution in the three-dimensional response (price, quantity, total value) within the geopolitical context. In the short term (within 6 months post-conflict), the European market exhibited a strong, quantity-inelastic substitution for US LNG. Both export value (DID = 11.820**) and export volume (DID = 10.468*) increased significantly, driven primarily by emergency procurement in France, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. In the medium term, European responses diverged: France and the Netherlands transitioned towards institutionalized substitution via infrastructure investments and long-term contracts; the UK maintained stable volume scheduling (Long-term export volume DID = 1.748*) through existing long-term agreements; while Spain gradually reduced its reliance.Regionally, Europe's trajectory evolved from a short-term volume surge to medium-term structural stabilization, followed by long-term partial differentiation. In contrast, the Asian market demonstrated price-elastic behavior. Export volumes and values showed no significant changes across phases, while prices consistently rose (Short-term DID = 0.594**; Medium-term DID = 0.552**).Significant divergence emerged at the country level: France and the Netherlands pursued continuous volume expansion; the UK maintained stable volumes under contract lock-in; Greece exhibited high price sensitivity (Long-term price DID = 1.077**); while Spain and Portugal adopted a phased substitution approach. Notably, China's long-term export value showed a negative trend (DID = -0.903), reflecting its strategy to reduce dependence on US supplies through supply chain diversification and regionalization.In summary, the Russia-Ukraine conflict acted as a short-term catalyst for US export expansion and global trade reconfiguration. However, the long-term impact is moderated by the combined effects of evolving energy policies, market rebalancing, and the development of new energy sources, leading to a gradual diminishment of the initial shock's effect.