Global Mapping of City-Level Green Growth Progress from Space

Cities seek to generate economic prosperity while simultaneously reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. Measuring progress toward these goals has been difficult as city-level results on value creation and emissions are not readily available. We used meteorology-adjusted satellite-derived tropospheric NO₂ pollution trends as a proxy for changes in fossil fuel combustion across 5,435 cities over 2019-2024 and combined this with subnational GDP per capita to map the effectiveness of decoupling efforts globally. Among cities with significant trends (n = 2,444), 59.6% achieved decoupling, 23.8% reduced emissions but also lowered GDP, 11.4% experienced fossil-fuel-dependent economic growth, and 5.2% became poorer and dirtier. Chinese cities dominate the “Green Growth” category, and while European and North American cities are enjoying reduced emissions, GDP evolution is mixed. India and the Middle East had the most cities experiencing fossil-fuel-dependent growth. The approach described can be revisited annually to track city-level green growth.