Multi-Scenario Simulation of the Impact of Landscape Patterns on Ecosystem Services in Alpine Meadow Regions

Aims The alpine meadow regions are mainly located in mountainous and plateau areas, exhibiting high sensitivity to climate change and human activities. Landscape pattern changes caused by human activities have a significant impact on ecosystem services. In this paper, the Upper Yellow River of Gannan (UYRG) were taken as an example. We aimed to evaluate the impact of landscape pattern changes on ecosystem service value (ESV) in alpine meadow regions, strengthening environmental protection and formulating ecosystem management strategies. Methods We utilized the PLUS model and landscape data from 1990 to 2020 to simulate and forecast landscape pattern indices and ESV for 2030 under multiple scenarios. Results In UYRG, the primary landscape types are woodland and grassland. There are decreasing trends in the PD and AI indices, indicating a more complex and fragmented landscape structure with weakened patch aggregation. In the 2030 simulations, the landscape aggregation level is higher in the ecological protection (EP) scenario and lower in the nature development scenario. The total ESV of UYRG shows an increasing trend, rising from 34.859 million USD to 34.878 million USD. In the EP scenario, the ESV in 2030 is the highest. Additionally, a positive correlation between UYRG's ESV and COHESION is observed; as the landscape pattern becomes more dispersed, the ESV decreases, while higher aggregation leads to higher ESV within the region. Conclusions These findings reveal the impact of landscape pattern changes on ecosystem services. It can provide a theoretical foundation for formulating ecosystem management strategies in alpine meadow regions.