Evaluating the predictive value of aortic propagation index on the incidence of cardiovascular events in asymptomatic patients with ASCVD risk score greater than ten

Introduction: Prediction of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is a challenge that cardiologists has faced all the times. Aortic propagation velocity (APV) is an echocardiography index that can be helpful with this regard; however, few studies have addressed the condition. Methods: This longitudinal study was conducted on cases with ASCVD score of >10. All the cases underwent echocardiography and APV was measured for them. The cases were classified into two groups including normal APV (>56 cm/s) and abnormal APV (≤56 cm/s). They were followed for a duration of one year and the rate of CVD was compared between the two groups. Moreover, ROC curve analysis was used for determining a cut-off. Results: Totally 60 cases including 37 (61.7%) males and 23 (38.3%) were entered in the study. At the end of one-year follow up, 7 cases developed CVD that 6 were in abnormal APV group and only 1 was in normal APV group (p=0.039). Logistic regression analysis showed that there was a significant relationship between APV and CVD development (OR=9.143; 95%CI= (3.932-1.116); p=0.047). ROC curve analysis proposed the cut off of 49.75 cm.s with a sensitivity of 85.7% and specificity of 60% (AUC=0.710; 95%CI= (0.835-0.585); p=0.072). Conclusion: APV can be used as a prognostic marker for CVD. Clinical trial number: not applicable.