Income-Specific Effects of Renewable Energy on Asia’s Ecological Footprint. A Quintile Regression Study

The rapid pace of economic growth, demographic changes, and industrial transformation has intensified ecological pressure across Asia, making the transition to cleaner energy a pressing policy priority. This study explores the role of renewable energy consumption (REC) in shaping the ecological footprint (EFP) of 39 Asian countries between 1990 to 2020, distinguishing among high-income (HIC), upper-middle-income (UMIC), and lower-middle-income (LMIC) groups. Employing the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR), the analysis incorporates Economic Growth (EG), Population Density (PD), Energy Intensity (EI), and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to capture heterogeneous effects across the income spectrum. The findings reveal clear differences: in HICs, REC follows an N-shaped trajectory, initially worsening but later alleviating environmental stress; in UMICs, the results weakly support the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), suggesting only tentative evidence of a turning point; while in LMICs, an N-shaped association appears, with REC increasing ecological pressure at lower quantiles but significantly reducing it at higher quantiles. These outcomes point to the dual nature of REC and emphasize the importance of income-sensitive thresholds in shaping environmental outcomes. By highlighting these divergent dynamics, the study contributes to ongoing policy discussions on renewable energy strategies and guides the design of context-specific interventions to curb ecological degradation and promote sustainable development in Asia.