Spatiotemporal evolution and drivers of carbon footprint in rice production: A 15-year provincial assessment in Hubei, China

In the context of food security, quantifying and reducing the carbon footprint (CF) of rice production is a crucial step toward sustainable rice farming. This study integrated life cycle assessment with statistical data to quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of the CF of rice production in Hubei Province, China, from 2008 to 2022 and identify the underlying driving factors. Our findings demonstrate a nonlinear “rise-decline-stabilization” trend in the area-scaled carbon footprint (CF _S ), which peaked in 2012 at 9,174 kg CO ₂ -eq·ha ^− 1 and subsequently fell to 8,963 kg CO ₂ -eq·ha ^− 1 by 2018. Between 2008 and 2022, carbon efficiency rose by 11.29%, and the carbon cost dropped by 10.14%, reflecting a strengthened decoupling between emissions and production intensity. In 2021, the analysis further uncovered substantial spatial disparities, with the CF _S varying from 6,922 kg CO ₂ -eq·ha ^− 1 in Xiaogan City to 16,013 kg CO ₂ -eq·ha ^− 1 in Shiyan City. These variations correlated with differences in topography and farm management. Direct methane emissions were the primary source of the carbon footprint (52.68%), with irrigation electricity (21.67%) and pesticides (7.59%) being the next largest contributors. Regression analysis confirmed pesticides as a key driver (y = 0.59x + 8561.98, R² = 0.72), underscoring that reducing their application and that of fertilizers can effectively mitigate the CF. Additionally, adopting comprehensive water management strategies, selecting suitable rice varieties, and optimizing planting patterns are vital to curbing methane emissions. For policy development, tailoring low-carbon strategies to regional economic and geographical contexts is crucial for optimizing sustainability outcomes.