A sustainable transition to electric minibus taxis in Cape Town’s paratransit

Paratransit is the dominant mode of public mobility in sub-Saharan Africa, yet its electrification has remained largely absent from sustainability debates. Using high-resolution tracking data from 671 minibus taxis in Cape Town’s Blue Dot programme, we evaluate the feasibility, energy system impacts, and environmental outcomes of transitioning this sector to electric vehicles. We show that electrification is technically viable under current mobility patterns, provided that both depot and home charging are available, while fast charging adds little additional benefit. However, charging introduces pronounced evening load peaks that coincide with existing grid stress, underscoring the importance of managed charging strategies and expanded renewable supply. Electrification does not immediately reduce greenhouse gas emissions under South Africa’s coal-heavy grid, but it does eliminate tailpipe particulate matter, with significant implications for urban health. Equity considerations are central: drivers and operators with less access to home charging face lower viability and greater disruption. Our findings demonstrate that informal and combustion-based paratransit systems are not beyond the reach of energy transition strategies. With the right infrastructure and planning, electrification of African paratransit can deliver cleaner air and lay the foundations for a just and sustainable mobility transition.