Analysis of Obesity Prevalence and Trend Prediction among Professional Women in a Hospital from 2010 to 2024: A Weight Management Perspective

Background: To analyze the prevalence of overweight, obesity, and central obesity among 248,147 professional women in Shanghai from 2010 to 2024 and predict their trends up to 2035, providing a data support for the local implementation of the Weight Management Annual Plan. Methods: We collated physical examination data from 248,147 female participants aged 20-59 years who underwent examinations at the Shanghai Health and Medical Center between 2010 and 2024. Overweight and obesity were determined based on body mass index (BMI), while central obesity was diagnosed using waist circumference (WC), waist-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-height ratio (WHtR) as reference values. The JoinPoint regression model was employed to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI). The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict the development trends of these indicators from 2025 to 2035. Results: Among the 248,147 female examinees, the prevalence of overweight was 21.26% (56,010 cases), obesity was 5.14% (13,248 cases), and central obesity was 25.23% (67,363 cases). From 2010 to 2024, the prevalence of overweight (AAPC=1.19%; 95%CI: 0.71 to 1.68; P <0.05) and obesity (AAPC=4.63%; 95%CI: 4.05 to 5.36; P <0.05) increased annually; the prevalence of central obesity peaked at 29.94% in 2013 and exhibited a fluctuating trend (AAPC=0.25; 95%CI: -0.83 to 1.29; P =0.605). Comparative analysis among age subgroups revealed a highly significant upward trend in the rates of overweight, obesity, and central obesity with increasing age (all P <0.05). The forecast results indicated that the prevalence of obesity would increase by 2.69% annually, reaching 9.14% by 2035 ( P <0.001); the prevalence of central obesity would increase by 0.52% annually, reaching 25.02% by 2035 ( P =0.040). Conclusion: Professional women should strengthen weight management, with employers facilitating health education, providing preferential medical insurance policies, improving the monitoring system, and implementing targeted interventions to control the obesity trend.