Human-driven sea-level rise has tripled the frequency of coastal sea-level extremes since 1900

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Abstract

Coastal flooding events are escalating worldwide, yet the role of human-driven sea-level rise remains poorly constrained. Here we provide the first global detection and attribution of changes in extreme sea-level (ESL) frequency since 1900, combining tide gauge records with historical and single-forcing experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We show that relative sea-level (RSL) rise, driven primarily by anthropogenic forcing since the 1960s, has already transformed the likelihood of historically rare extremes. Globally, the median frequency of a historical 1-in-100-year ESL event has increased sixfold, with human-driven forcing alone tripling the likelihood of such events. Natural variability still modulates regional patterns but has become secondary along most coastlines. These findings provide direct, observation-based evidence that climate change has already reshaped coastal flood hazard, underscoring the urgency of integrating attribution science into coastal adaptation, risk management, and policy frameworks.

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