Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Malaria Transmission Dynamics: A System Dynamics Case Study of Nigeria

Malaria remains a significant global public health challenge, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions, with Nigeria bearing the highest burden. Understanding the complex interplay between climate factors and malaria transmission is crucial for effective control. This study extends a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) system dynamics model to analyze the impact of temperature on malaria transmission dynamics in Nigeria, utilizing Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections. The model incorporates temperature-dependent parameters for mosquito bite rate, death rate, maturation rate, and parasite incubation rate, adapting an existing framework to Nigerian population characteristics. Simulations were conducted using Vensim, with initial conditions and parameter values derived from literature and national statistics. To ensure model stability, a cap was implemented on the immature mosquito population. Four future temperature scenarios, based on IPCC projections (SSP 1-1.9, SSP 5-8.5, SSP 2-4.5, SSP 3–7.0), were integrated with Nigeria's current mean annual temperature. The results consistently indicated that both the force of infection and the number of infected humans decrease with increasing temperatures across all simulated scenarios. This suggests a potential reduction in malaria transmission in Nigeria as temperatures continue to rise due to climate change. While this finding highlights a possible positive consequence of rising temperatures on malaria prevalence, it is crucial to emphasize that climate change still poses severe risks to human life and should be mitigated. Future research will incorporate other climate factors like rainfall and humidity, alongside various malaria preventive measures, to provide a more comprehensive assessment and inform targeted interventions in vulnerable populations.