Determinants of Early Marriage Among Afghan Women: A Multilevel Analysis of the Nationally Representative MICS 2022–23 Data

Background: Early marriage continues to be a significant public health and social issue in Afghanistan, resulting in adverse health, educational, and economic outcomes. Understanding its prevalence and associated factors is essential for developing targeted interventions. This study estimated the prevalence of early marriage among Afghan women aged 15–49 and examined individual- and community-level factors related to the practice. Methods: We analyzed data from 36,701 women aged 15–49 from the 2022–23 Afghanistan Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS). Multilevel logistic regression models accounted for the survey’s complex sampling design and clustering to identify factors associated with marriage before age 18. Results: The prevalence of early marriage was 53.6%, with the highest rates among women aged 20–34 years (56.2–57.6%). Compared to women aged 45–49, those aged 15–19 had the highest odds (AOR = 5.65, 95% CI: 5.05–6.33). Increased odds were also observed among currently married (AOR = 2.87), formerly married (AOR = 3.07), women with only primary education (AOR = 1.29), and those with a history of child death (AOR = 1.97). Protective factors included higher education (AOR = 0.59), being in the richest wealth quintile (AOR = 0.81), and a higher household wealth index (AOR = 0.90). Media exposure, internet use, and place of residence were not statistically significant. Conclusion More than half of Afghan women marry before they turn 18. To reduce early marriage, efforts should target adolescent girls by increasing access to education and tackling socio-economic inequalities.