Urban Meander Loop Dynamics and Future Projections – Insights from the Barak River, India

The Barak River is recognised as one of the most highly meandering rivers in Northeast India, which presents considerable challenges for local communities, particularly during flood events. This study conducts a thorough investigation into the geomorphological transformations occurring within an urban meander loop situated in the centre of Silchar city, Assam, India. The analysis demonstrates that the length, width, ratio, and wavelength of the meander have exhibited an overall increase, while the sinuosity and radius of curvature have shown a declining trend. A comprehensive land use and land cover analysis of the urban meander loop reveals a significant increase in settlements by 16.18%, accompanied by reductions in water bodies (0.57%), dense vegetation (2.58%), and agricultural land (13.16%). The Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was employed to facilitate predictive analysis to forecast channel shifting trends up to the year 2030. The results indicate that the channel in the urban meander loop is undergoing erratic changes, shifting either to the right or left. There is a high correlation between the observed and the predicted values, with an R² value of 0.8. The persistent uncertainty in channel movements is anticipated to pose ongoing threats to nearby settlements and significantly alter existing land use in the foreseeable future.