Early prognostic factors for claim cost and claim duration following a work-related back injury in Saskatchewan, Canada

Purpose The objective of the current study was to determine the degree to which individual prognostic factors obtained within the first 3–4 weeks of the initiation of a work-related back injury claim can predict claim cost and claim duration. Methods Prognostic factor data and outcome data regarding claim cost and duration were obtained from back injury claimants via an online questionnaire and the local workers’ compensation board. Regression models were used to determine which of the factors were best able to predict claim cost, claim duration, and chronic work disability. Results Age, disability, and an accommodation and/or early return-to-work program being offered were included in the three final regression models and were therefore deemed to be best able to predict all three outcomes. History of similar back pain, radiating leg pain, job involving heavy work, and recovery expectations were also included in the final regression models for claim cost and claim duration, and were therefore deemed to be able to assist in the prediction of these outcomes. Conclusion The regression models produced in the current study could be used to formulate equations to estimate claim cost and duration, thereby allowing insurers to identify “high-risk claims” early in the claim process and facilitate more targeted interventions in such cases. As well, whether an accommodation and/or early return-to-work program is offered is highlighted as a modifiable risk factor that could be used by insurers, employers, and workers to reduce claim cost and claim duration.