Regional Dynamics and Policy Evolution: A Comprehensive Review of China’s Fertility Policies (1980-2021)

This study provides a comprehensive policy analysis of China’s fertility policies from 1980 to 2021, focusing on their evolution, regional diversity, and practical efficacy. Drawing on an original database of provincial-level regulations and demographic data, we examine how national directives have been implemented and adapted across different regions over time. The analysis highlights significant heterogeneity in policy design, with local governments exercising considerable discretion to accommodate distinct demographic, economic, and cultural contexts. Decomposition of policy domains reveals that rural residency exceptions primarily drove early increases in permissible fertility rates. At the same time, exemptions for ethnic minorities and only-child parents played a more localized or limited role. Despite successive relaxations, such as the introduction of the two-child and three-child policies, a persistent and growing gap has emerged between policy intentions and actual fertility outcomes, especially in urbanized and economically advanced provinces. This divergence is attributed to broader socioeconomic transformations, including rising costs of child rearing, educational pressures, and shifting family norms, which increasingly outweigh the influence of formal regulations. The findings underscore the necessity for more nuanced, regionally tailored policy interventions that go beyond quota adjustments to address underlying economic and social barriers to higher fertility. By providing an in-depth and regionally disaggregated perspective, this study offers critical insights for policymakers seeking to develop effective responses to China’s ongoing demographic challenges. JEL Classification: J1 , J13 , J18