On age-specific mortality trends since Covid-19 in Switzerland

Background To study the evolution of age-specific mortality in Switzerland before and after the Covid-19 pandemic, in order to determine whether pre-pandemic trends have been recovered in 2023-24. Study design: Statistical analysis of official mortality data in Switzerland. Methods Standardized mortality rates by age group since Covid-19 were compared with those expected by continuing trends estimated over the pre-pandemic years 2000-19 by log-linear Poisson models, resulting in estimates of excess mortality for the period 2020-24. Overall mortality trends were also compared with official statistics of specific causes of death. Results Mortality in Switzerland showed in 2024 a complete return to pre-pandemic trends. However, there were marked differences between age groups. While mortality in age groups 0–14 and 45–64 was not affected by the pandemic, mortality in age groups 65–84 and 85+, after a significant increase during the pandemic, have partially, respectively completely, returned to pre-pandemic trends in 2024. In contrast, mortality in age group 15–44, especially for men, began to stagnate even before the pandemic, and has been consistently and significantly above trend in recent years. This is related to the fact that all leading causes of death seem to have stopped declining in this age group. Discussion While mortality in Switzerland has globally returned to its downward trend after the COVID-19 pandemic, this is not the case for all age groups, particularly among men aged 15 to 44, for whom all major causes of death have recently stabilized. Conclusions After a long period of decline, mortality among young adults has stagnated in Switzerland for the past decade, appearing to have reached a certain minimum. This should be taken into account when developing future mortality and life expectancy scenarios.