Trends and Projections of Burkitt Lymphoma Burden (1990–2036): An Analysis Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Burkitt lymphoma (BL) is a rare yet highly aggressive subtype of non – Hodgkin lymphoma. Comprehensive evaluations of the long – term global burden of BL remain limited. The aim of this study was to assess the burden of BL at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990–2021 and to project trends over the next 15 years. Methods This study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 dataset. Temporal trends in age – standardized rates were analysed using joinpoint regression. To evaluate health disparities, we applied both the slope index of inequality and the concentration index. Frontier analysis was used to quantify the deviation of each country from the lowest theoretically achievable burden on the basis of its development level. Finally, a Bayesian age‒period‒cohort model was implemented to project the global burden of BL through 2036. Results Both the incidence and prevalence rates of BL increased from 1990–2021. Although the mortality and disability – adjusted life years (DALYs) rates also rose slightly, their rates of increase were notably lower than those of incidence and prevalence. BL demonstrated a bimodal age pattern, with incidence peaking among children aged 5–9 years and again in adults older than 65 years. The disease burden was consistently greater in males than in females. A significant positive correlation was found between the sociodemographic index (SDI) and both the incidence and prevalence rates, whereas the mortality and DALY rates were significantly negatively correlated with the SDI. Health inequality analyses revealed that while incidence and prevalence burdens have increasingly concentrated in high – SDI countries, mortality and DALY burdens remain disproportionately higher in low – SDI regions. Frontier analysis demonstrated that in most countries, BL – related DALYs remain above the expected level on the basis of development status. The projected trend shows a slow but continuous decline in global BL age – standardized rates in males and females through 2036. Conclusions Over the past three decades, the global burden of BL has steadily increased, accompanied by pronounced regional and sex – related disparities closely associated with levels of sociodemographic development. This comprehensive analysis offers critical insights and evidence – based guidance to inform targeted strategies for the prevention and control of BL worldwide.