Geospatial analysis of drought impacts on maize millet and sorghum in Burkina Faso

Maize, millet, and sorghum are the main cereal crops in Burkina Faso, accounting for 91% of overall cereal production in the country. These are some of the pillars of the country's food and nutritional security, hence the decision to choose these as reference crops for African Risk Capacity's parametric insurance. The overall objective of this study was to use WRSI images from Africa RiskView, ARC’s technical tool and early warning system, to analyse drought dynamics over the period 2001-2020 in Burkina Faso to help define an agricultural insurance strategy. The methodology used is based on the customisation of the Africa RiskView agricultural drought model, and on the classification of images of WRSI compared to normal using pre-trained Convolutional Neural Networks (Pre-trained CNN). This study showed the presence of widespread droughts between 2001 and 2013, and partial droughts spread throughout the study period. The provinces most exposed to severe droughts are those located in the northern Sudanian belt, with a probability of exposure of over 20%. The frequency of droughts occurrence has an impact on the progress of the agricultural season and on cereal production levels. In addition, the trend towards wetter weather with a predominance of average droughts is disrupting the start of the agricultural season and sowing periods. Hence, there is need for an insurance strategy tailored to the dynamics of drought in the country. The Anticipatory Insurance strategy is emerging as a new approach to mitigate the effects of drought on agricultural production.