Total bilirubin as a mortality predictor in non-elderly hemodialysis patients: A multicenter retrospective cohort study
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Background The association between serum total bilirubin (TBIL) levels and mortality in maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients, especially when stratified by age, has not been clearly established. Methods We performed a multicenter retrospective analysis of 409 MHD patients (40 deaths, 9.8%) over a median follow-up of 31.3 months (interquartile range (IQR), 28.9–31.8). Cox regression models evaluated TBIL’s predictive role for mortality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve-derived cutoff (8.79 µmol/L) stratified patients into high (H, TBIL > 8.79 µmol/L, n = 236) and low (L, TBIL ≤ 8.79 µmol/L, n = 173) groups. Multivariable Cox models adjusted for demographics, comorbidities (Model 2), and laboratory markers (Model 3). Kaplan-Meier analysis compared survival rates, with age subgroup comparisons. Results Significant differences emerged between H and L groups in hypertension history, platelet count, total protein, blood urea nitrogen, triglycerides, and total cholesterol (all P < 0.05). Adjusted models revealed elevated mortality risk in high TBIL patients (HR = 6.69, 95%CI 3.06–14.61, P < 0.01). Age-stratified analysis revealed dramatically elevated mortality risk in non-elderly high-TBIL patients (HR = 12.82, 95%CI 3.76–43.76, P < 0.001), but no significant association in elderly patients (HR = 2.00, 95%CI 0.83–4.81, P = 0.12). Conclusion TBIL independently predicts all-cause mortality specifically in non-elderly MHD patients, suggesting age-dependent clinical utility as a prognostic biomarker. Further studies should investigate unconjugated bilirubin fractions.