What is driving fire regimes in conservational landscapes? A spatio-temporal analysis of West African Protected Landscapes

Understanding the drivers of fire regime is important for landscape management, especially in fire-prone protected areas in West Africa. Although broad-scale fire patterns have been studied globally, gaps exist in fine ecological gradients across protected landscapes where climate, vegetation, and human pressures intersect. Thus, limited knowledge exists on the effects of these factors on fire patterns in conservation areas. To bridge this gap, we assessed fire dynamics across 15 protected areas (PAs) in diverse ecological zones using 23 years (2001–2023) of MODIS-derived burned area data, ESA Worldcover, ERA5 and CHIRPS precipitation records. To explore the spatial and temporal drivers of fire activity, we addressed five questions: (1) why do some PAs burn more, (2) whether ecological zones and locations explain fire patterns better than land cover, (3) how land cover classes vary in burn extent and timing, (4) whether annual fire activity relates to seasonal rainfall, and (5) whether fire timing differs between PA interiors and surrounding landscapes.We found that PAs within the Northern Savanna zone showed highest fire activity from November to January due to open canopy and high grass biomass. PAs in the forest zone had lower fire activity under dense canopies and moist conditions. Also, dry-season precipitation negatively correlated with burned area, while wet-season rainfall had no effect. Fire frequency declined by 50% from the park edge outward to 20 km into the surrounding landscape. In addition, fires were more frequent in grasslands than forests, with parks like Comoé NP and Mole NP showing fire frequencies exceeding 0.7 burns per pixel per year. Fires outside parks occurred earlier than those within boundaries. While land cover types differed in fire responses, patterns were influenced by ecological zones and park protection status. Dry season burned area decreased by 3.1 km² for every mm increase in rainfall, reflecting a 23-year trend of declining fire extent in savanna parks under wetter conditions, whereas forested parks showed minimal change. This study advances our understanding of fire dynamics in conservation areas and necessary management responses under changing climate.