Trend and burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias in China 1990–2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2035
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Background: Alzheimer's Disease (AD) has become a major public health problem affecting the health of the elderly as the global population ages. This study aims to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of AD in China, predict its future trends, and explore coping strategies, with the aim of providing a scientific basis for public health policy making. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, this study assessed the underlying prevalence characteristics and trends in AD age-standardized incidence and mortality using a combination of joint point regression models and (Bayesian) age-period-cohort models. Results: The age-standardized incidence and mortality of AD and other dementias in China in 2021 were 151.47 /100 000 and 30.82/10 000, and the age-standardized rate of disability-adjusted life year was 562.39 /100 000. Between 1990 and 2021, the age-standardized incidence showed an increasing trend, while the age-standardized mortality declined slightly. Age is a significant risk factor for incidence and mortality in AD and other dementias, with both incidence and mortality increasing significantly with age. Period and cohort effects showed fluctuations in incidence and mortality across time and cohorts. Projection analyses suggest that the standardized incidence and mortality for AD and other dementias will increase steadily between 2022 and 2035. Conclusion: The age-standardized incidence and mortality for AD and other dementias increase significantly with age and are higher for female than for male. Despite a slight decline in mortality in recent years, the age-standardized incidence is still rising and is projected to continue to increase over the next 10 years. Suggesting that the burden of the disease on the public health system may further increase, there is an urgent need to strengthen early screening, diagnosis and interventions to cope with the growing disease burden in the future.
