Global carbon intensity of LNG value chain amid intensifying energy security and climate trade-offs

The recent global energy crisis, originating from the global pandemic, disruption in supply chains, and Europe's geopolitical developments, drove unprecedented reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) [1,2]. Yet, LNG's supply chain climate implications have remained poorly quantified [3]. Here, we present the first comprehensive greenhouse gas emissions assessment of global LNG value chain by capturing 85% of global LNG trade in 2022 by covering 2,500 oil and gas fields, >1,000 gas processing plants, 33 liquefaction terminals, 123 regasification terminals, 1.25 million km of natural gas transmission pipeline, and 948 unique LNG trade routes. We find that carbon intensity varies threefold between supply chains, from 8.0 to 26 g CO2eq./MJ, with methane emissions accounting for over half of the total climate impact, where approximately 75% of total methane emissions originate from superemitters. Our analysis of 948 trade routes reveals that importing countries' emissions profiles depend heavily on supply choices. Japan maintains below-average intensity through selective sourcing, while Spain's reliance on high-emission suppliers doubles its carbon footprint. While our analysis reveals no strong explicit correlation between carbon intensity and terminal LNG sales economics, more granular project-level analysis reveals systematic relationship between both combustion-related emissions and methane emissions, and LNG sales price. Meeting proposed methane regulations would require some exporters to cut emissions by up to 98%, potentially reshaping global trade patterns. These findings provide granular data needed to align energy security with climate goals, as LNG demand is projected to grow 40% by 2030 [2,4].