Prediction of the distribution of Chenopodium hybridum L. in potentially suitable areas in China via the optimised Maxent model

Background The invasive alien species Chenopodium hybridum , which is native to Europe and West Asia, was introduced into China through birds, livestock and agricultural activities and is now distributed in many places, such as Heilongjiang, Xinjiang and Tibet. Its invasion can damage ecosystems, endanger agricultural production and threaten human health. However, the potential distribution area of this species remains unclear. Therefore, the Maxent model, combined with ArcGIS and R software, can be used to analyze the potential distribution area of this species under current and future (2050s and 2070s) climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585), providing a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of C. hybridum invasion. Results The Maxent model (with an AUC value of 0.928) identified human activities, slope, soil moisture, and precipitation as the main factors influencing the distribution of C. hybridum . The current suitable areas are concentrated in North, Central, Southwest, Northeast and Northwest China, with a total area of approximately 2.051×10 ⁶ km ² . Under the future scenario, the area of suitable areas varies, but the area of highly suitable areas generally decreases. The changes in the potentially suitable areas for C. hybridum were mainly concentrated in northwestern and southwestern China. In the 2050s, the center of gravity of the suitable area distribution of C. hybridum shifted mainly to the southwest from Shaanxi to Ningxia; in the 2070s, the center of gravity was dispersed and shifted to Gansu under the SSP370 scenario, whereas the center of gravity of the other scenarios was still Ningxia. Conclusions Human activities are the core driver of the invasion of C. hybridum , and their distribution is highly correlated with the human footprint. Future climate change will lead to the contraction of highly suitable areas and the expansion of low-suitability areas to arid and high-elevation regions. A three-tier prevention and control system, including "blocking the expansion corridor in Northwest China, monitoring the core area in North China, and warning the potential area in Southwest China" and strengthening the removal of highly suitable areas and quarantining potentially spread areas, is recommended to curb the spread of invasion.