Pumas, culpeo foxes, bad and good dogs. Assessing strategies to mitigate predation

Predation is a key ecological process but reconciling it with the socio-economic role of livestock in rural regions remains a challenge. Human-dominated landscapes exhibit profound disruptions in the functionality of ecological processes, influencing performances of predation mitigation measures. The aim of this study was to investigate sheep mortality patterns under extensive management conditions in Patagonia, to determine the impact of pumas ( Puma concolor ) and culpeo foxes ( Lycalopex culpaeus ) and assess the influence of socio-environmental and management factors (state-subsidized lethal control and Livestock Guarding Dogs -LGD-) on the probability of sheep deaths. We monitored sheep mortality across six commercial ranches (covering 1,500 km² and 61,000 sheep), and socio-environmental and management covariates. We used hierarchical Bayesian models to evaluate covariates operating on sheep deaths occurrence probability. We performed 139 necropsies, where pumas, culpeo foxes, and domestic dogs ( Canis lupus familiaris ) were responsible for 25.9%, 22.3%, and 21.6% of recorded deaths, respectively. Statistical analyses revealed that (i) LGD significantly reduced the probability of puma predation on sheep, and (ii) the likelihood of sheep predation by culpeo foxes was directly influenced by fox relative abundance and inversely by prey biomass availability. We recommend moving beyond reductionist policies, allocating resources to promote responsible LGD implementation.